A carmaker on the books, an AI bet in the price.
Tesla still earns about three-quarters of its revenue selling cars, and Q2 operating margin was just 1.4%. The $1.5T valuation rests on robotaxi, FSD subscriptions, Optimus and energy storage, while capex runs above $25B this year.
Price, last 12 months
Daily closes with the 50-day average. The stock peaked in mid-December, slid 39% to a late-July low after the Q2 profit miss, and has since won back about two-fifths of the drop.
Revenue by segment, by quarter
Automotive is vehicle sales, regulatory credits and leasing. Energy is Megapack, Powerwall and solar. Services & other covers servicing, insurance, Supercharging, used cars and FSD-related revenue. Q3 2026 is analyst consensus, not company guidance; Tesla does not give quarterly revenue guidance.
| Quarter | Automotive | Energy | Services & other | Total | Total YoY | Gross margin | Non-GAAP EPS |
|---|
Fiscal-year financials
Revenue in US$ millions; Tesla's fiscal year is the calendar year. Revenue fell 3% in 2025 as vehicle sales shrank 10%, and GAAP net income nearly halved to $3.8B ($1.08 diluted EPS) as R&D rose 41%.
| FY25 | US$M | % rev |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 94,827 | 100% |
| Gross profit | 17,094 | 18.0% |
| R&D | 6,411 | 6.8% |
| SG&A | 5,834 | 6.2% |
| Operating income (GAAP) | 4,355 | 4.6% |
| Net income (GAAP) | 3,794 | 4.0% |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $1.67 | — |
Watch list
What moves the thesis, sorted by direction.
Robotaxi and FSD
Unsupervised robotaxi runs in 7 US metros and Cybercab production has started in Texas. Paid FSD users reached 1.48M, with take rate above 55% of North American deliveries.
Volume is back
Q3 deliveries of 486,532 beat consensus by about 25k after Q2 rose 25% YoY. Storage deployments hit a record 13.7 GWh, with Megapack 3 due in 2026.
Margin squeeze
Auto gross margin ex-credits fell to 16.3% from 19.2% in Q1. Q2 GAAP profit leaned on a ~$1.0B unrealized SpaceX gain; operating income was only $398M.
Capex and cash burn
2026 capex is guided above $25B. Free cash flow was −$1.09B in Q2 and management expects it to stay negative through 2026. Cash and investments stand at $43.5B.
Credits and execution
Regulatory credit revenue fell 67% YoY to $146M. Optimus, Semi and Cybercab all have to ramp in the same half-year, and the robotaxi city target for H1 was missed.
Valuation and dispersion
About 164× 2027 earnings. Analyst targets run from $157 to $840, and 15 of 82 rate it a sell. Average daily range is about $11, so position sizing matters.
Calendar
Q3 2026 earnings
After US close; Q&A webcast 5:30pm ET (Oct 22, 5:30am SGT). Consensus: revenue ~$27.6B, gross margin ~17.7%.
Q4 deliveries
Production and deliveries usually post on the second calendar day of the quarter.
Q4 and FY26 results
Date not yet announced; full-year results have come in the last week of January.
Sources
- Tesla Investor Relations — quarterly updates, delivery reports
- Q3 2026 production, deliveries & deployments (Oct 2, 2026)
- Q1 2026 Form 8-K and five-quarter summary
- Q2 2026 earnings recap
- Q2 2026 detail: credits, auto margin, outlook
- Q2 2026 10-Q segment table
- Q4 and FY2025 results
- Q3 2026 earnings preview and consensus
- SEC EDGAR filings (CIK 1318605)
- Price history, technicals, estimates, analyst consensus: Financial Modeling Prep, as of Oct 9, 2026