Memory is the bottleneck, and Micron collects the toll.
AI servers need more DRAM, HBM and flash than the industry can make. Micron's quarterly revenue went from $11.3B to $54.2B in a year at an 87% gross margin, and management sees supply staying tight through 2028. The catch: memory has always been cyclical, and capex is climbing fast.
Price, last 12 months
Daily closes with the 50-day average. Micron rose more than five-fold over the past year as memory prices surged.
Revenue and margins, by quarter
Revenue in US$ millions, with GAAP gross margin on the right axis. Micron's fiscal year ends around September 1, and FQ4 2026 had 14 weeks. The last bar is company guidance at the midpoint.
| Quarter | Ended | Revenue, US$M | YoY | Gross margin | Op. margin | EPS (GAAP) |
|---|
Watch list
What moves the thesis, sorted by direction.
Supply stays tight
Management expects memory supply and demand to be much tighter in 2027 and 2028 than in 2026, with no line of sight to balance. 26 strategic customer agreements cover about 35% of output through 2030.
HBM pricing reset
HBM prices for calendar 2027 were raised significantly to close the profit gap with conventional DRAM. Over 75% of FY27 shipments are already committed.
Capex step-up
About $25B of capex in the first half of FY27, including ~$11.5B in Q1, mostly cleanrooms that produce from late 2028. Cost per bit is guided up by double digits in Q1.
Capital returns
Micron plans to return 100% of excess cash, mostly through buybacks, with larger returns starting Dec 9, 2026. It holds $73.5B of cash and investments.
The cycle turns
Memory has always swung from shortage to glut. The 86.25% gross margin guided for Q1 is the first guide in this cycle below the prior quarter's actual.
Volatility
The stock is up more than five-fold in a year with a beta above 2. Daily swings are large, so position sizing matters.
Calendar
Q1 FY27 earnings
Guide: $61.5B ±$1.5B revenue, ~86.25% non-GAAP gross margin, EPS $38.15 ±$1.00.
Larger capital returns
Micron said its increased capital return starts on this date.
Q2 FY27 earnings
Date not yet announced; second-quarter results usually come in late March.
Sources
- Q4 FY26 results and Q1 FY27 guidance (Sayer)
- Q4 FY26 recap: FY26 cash flow and deposits
- FY27 capex and capital return plans
- Q4 FY26 earnings call transcript
- Five-quarter 8-K summary
- Quarterly income statement (Stock Analysis)
- SEC EDGAR filings (CIK 723125)
- Price, market cap and beta: Yahoo Finance and Financial Modeling Prep, as of Oct 9, 2026