AI optics growth, paid for up front.
Coherent makes optical transceivers, indium phosphide lasers and industrial lasers. Datacenter & Communications is now 79% of revenue and grew 59% last quarter, and management targets a $3B revenue quarter by the end of FY27. To get there it is spending heavily on laser capacity, which has turned free cash flow negative.
Price, last 12 months
Daily closes with the 50-day average. From its 52-week low the stock roughly quadrupled to $440, then fell about 30%.
Revenue and margins, by quarter
Revenue in US$ millions, with GAAP gross margin on the right axis. Coherent's fiscal year ends June 30; FY22 is II-VI before it bought Coherent in July 2022 and took its name. The last bar is guidance at the midpoint.
| Quarter | Ended | Revenue, US$M | YoY | Gross margin | Op. margin | EPS (GAAP) |
|---|
Watch list
What moves the thesis, sorted by direction.
Data center demand
Data center revenue rose 66% YoY in Q4, and management expects more than 80% YoY growth this quarter. 1.6T transceivers ramp through 2027.
Indium phosphide scale-up
Internal InP laser output doubles YoY by the end of Q1 FY27, a quarter early, and more than doubles again by end-2027. A 6-inch wafer gives four times the output of a 3-inch one at half the cost.
New products
Co-packaged optics revenue starts in the December quarter, and the optical circuit switch market estimate doubled to over $4B.
Cash burn from capex
FY26 operating cash flow was only $80M against $1.1B of capex, so free cash flow was about −$1B. A third InP site is planned for the first half of 2027.
Industrial weakness
Industrial revenue fell to $431M from $511M a year earlier as Coherent leans into AI.
Execution
InP capacity is the bottleneck; any slip in yields or the ramp caps revenue. The stock is about 30% below its high, so position sizing matters.
Calendar
Q1 FY27 earnings
Guide: $2.2–2.4B revenue, 39.5–41.5% non-GAAP gross margin, EPS $1.85–2.05.
First CPO revenue
Co-packaged optics is expected to start contributing.
$3B quarter target
Management aims for a quarter above $3B of revenue by the end of FY27.
Sources
- Q4 FY26 analysis and guidance (Miracoup)
- Q4 FY26 slides (Investing.com)
- Q4 FY26 call: InP capacity and $3B target
- FY26 cash burn
- Q4 FY26 call transcript summary
- Quarterly income statement (Stock Analysis)
- SEC EDGAR filings (CIK 820318)
- Price, market cap and beta: Yahoo Finance and Financial Modeling Prep, as of Oct 9, 2026